She came to office in December 2019, but as leader of Finland’s center-left Social Democrats, Prime Minister Sanna Marin now faces a difficult electoral campaign.
Two other parties have posed a formidable challenge, and public opinion polls indicate that the April 2 election is too close to call.
The center-right National Coalition Party of Petteri Orpo now leads in the polls by little over 20%. The right-wing populist Finns Party of Riikka Purra, however, is not far behind Ms. Marin’s center-left party.
This election is taking place amid extraordinary international interest in Finland’s application to join NATO. It has the EU’s longest land border with Russia, measuring 1,300 kilometers (810 miles).
Who will allow Finland to join NATO?
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The Social Democrats of Ms. Marin may have initiated the process, but the strong public support for joining NATO does not imply that she will complete the step.
During Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, abandoning military neutrality was a huge move; yet, 80% of Finns now support NATO membership.
“Until February 2022, the overwhelming majority of Finns consistently rejected NATO. “The majority viewed it as an unwarranted provocation of Moscow,” said Sakari Nurmela, general director of Kantar Public.
The battle has nonetheless dominated the election campaign, and when Ms. Marin indicated she was willing to transfer Ukraine outdated fighter jets, Mr. Orpo said her vow was reckless and “cannot be kept.”
Sanna Marin still popular
When her Social Democrat predecessor resigned, she became the youngest prime minister in the world at age 34. Her leadership was initially defined by the Covid epidemic and is now defined by the Russian invasion.
Modern, feminist, and forthright, Ms. Marin has become Finland’s most recognizable worldwide icon.
A year ago, when a video of her dancing with friends, influencers, and a Finnish pop star was released into social media, she was harshly criticized at home.
Yet, this has had no effect on her approval rating, which remains strong despite the success of the center-right and populist parties.
“It is uncommon for support for the prime minister to remain stable at the end of a legislative term. It’s a rarity in Finnish politics, according to political historian Jenni Karimaki of the University of Helsinki.
64% of respondents to a study conducted by the Helsingin Sanomat newspaper in December 2012 felt that Ms. Marin had performed a “very good” or “pretty good” job as prime minister. In the case of female respondents, the percentage was slightly higher, at 69%.
Ms. Karimaki credits Ms. Marin’s popularity to Finland’s extraordinary circumstances:
“Some of her utterances are not typical of a politician. This is something that garners much interest.”
According to pollster Sakari Nurmela, her work is recognized even by those who disagree with her political beliefs, such as NCP or Finns Party followers.
Opponents to Marin
Petteri Orpo, 53, has attempted to present his party as more accountable than the center-left by accusing Ms. Marin of incurring excessive debt.
Four years ago, despite the fact that their two parties could form a coalition, they were unable to strike an agreement.
Jan Erola, a political commentator, argues that Riikka Purra’s Finns Party, formerly known as the True Finns, could be an unexpected winner.
If the next prime minister is not Sanna Marin, it seems likely that she will be replaced by a woman. Transitioning from a young, left-leaning woman to a young, right-leaning woman as Finland’s prime minister would be a fascinating shift.”
Ms. Marin has described Ms. Purra’s 45-year-old party as “openly racist,” thus the question is whether any of the major parties would be willing to rule with her. The Social Democrats and two other parties have stated unequivocally that they will not collaborate with the Finns, but Mr. Orpo has stated that he will not rule out speaking with any party.
Seeking the youth vote
While searching for Finnish politics on TikTok, many of the top videos have messages from the Finns Party, with Ms. Purra prominently featured.
According to a recent survey, this party is the most popular among young voters.
“The Finns Party asserts that they are a new, alternative voice that appeals to young people. According to Emilia Palonen, a senior lecturer at the University of Helsinki, “for many young people, TikTok is a party with entertaining videos.”
According to her colleagues, Ms. Purra is an excellent communicator who avoids sounding like a politician. According to Matti Nelimarkka of Helsinki and Aalto Universities, her approach encourages interaction on social media.
“She uses the same language as common people when describing the problems with Finnish schools and the health care system.
I believe this will be the first election in a Nordic nation where TikTok plays a substantial role.
Anti-climate action and anti-immigration
Despite workforce shortages in various sectors of the Finnish economy, the Finns Party opposes immigration from outside of the EU.
In a recent debate among party leaders, their leader proposed delaying Finland’s 2035 carbon neutrality goal until 2050.
Political commentator Jan Erola asserts,
“The Finns Party is pro-meat, pro-cars, and anti-wokeism.” “Purra employs all the buzzwords that generate lively social media discussions.”
Emilia Palonen, a professor, says,
“They claim that forceful climate initiatives are an elite attitude that harms ordinary people, particularly in light of the economic downturn.” They are capitalizing on people’s fears of inflation and rising electricity rates.”
Managing an economy
Finland is well-known for its high social spending; in 2022, 29% of GDP was allocated to public welfare. However, balancing the budget has become a major concern in the run-up to the election.
The public debt increased throughout the pandemic, and Finland borrowed additional funds to bolster its defenses after Russia invaded Ukraine last year. This increased state debt to €144 billion (£126 billion; $152 billion).
In February, Mr. Orpo brought the subject to a vote of confidence, warning that the welfare system was under jeopardy. His political organization promotes tax cuts and austerity measures.
Sanna Marin has rejected reductions to benefits, education, and healthcare, describing them as “a bitter, ineffective medication.” Her SDP will focus on economic expansion and “closing tax loopholes” to address public financing concerns.
Disparate politics
When Ms. Marin became prime minister, she was one of the coalition government’s five female party leaders. Her political allies included the Center, the Greens, and the Left.
And due to Finland’s multi-party system, it is possible that no party will receive more than a fifth of the vote, according to Ms. Karimaki.
She adds that whoever wins will need to convince other parties to participate. It may take some time, but they will eventually succeed.
Nevertheless, she says, if the Finns Party wins, Ms. Purra’s task may be the most difficult.
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